🎲 Geometric Distribution Calculator

Calculate the probability that the first success occurs on a specific trial or within a number of trials.

📊 Statistics📐 Formula included🧠 Practice questions✓ Free
Please enter valid values.

Formula and Explanation

Calculate the probability that the first success occurs on a specific trial or within a number of trials.

ConceptFormula or rule
Geometric Distribution CalculatorP(X=k) = (1−p)ᵏ⁻¹p

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter the sample, counts, probabilities, or summary statistics requested above.
  2. Keep paired lists in the same order and separate values with commas.
  3. Select the correct test direction or sample/population option when available.
  4. Press Calculate and interpret the result together with the supporting statistics.

Worked Example

Example: With p=0.25, the chance the first success occurs on trial 4 is 0.75³×0.25.
✓ P(X=4) ≈ 0.1055

Where This Is Used

School & coursework
Check homework, understand formulas, and verify step-by-step statistics exercises.
Research
Explore estimates, uncertainty, distributions, and relationships before using full statistical software.
Business & data analysis
Summarize variation, compare groups, and communicate data-driven findings clearly.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

⚠️
Starting k at zero
This page defines X as the trial number, so k starts at 1.
⚠️
Changing p between trials
The geometric model requires constant p.
⚠️
Confusing first success with number of successes
It models waiting time, not a count in fixed trials.

Practice Questions

1. If p=0.5, what is P(first success on trial 1)?
Answer: 0.5
2. If p=0.2, what is the expected trial number?
Answer: 5
3. What is the minimum trial number?
Answer: 1

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected trial number?▾
1/p.
Does the geometric distribution have memory?▾
It is memoryless under independent constant-probability trials.
What is P(X>k)?▾
(1−p)^k.

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