Cognitive Decline Risk Factor Calculator

Assess your profile against the modifiable dementia risk factors identified by the Lancet Commission, which together account for a substantial share of population dementia risk.

🧠 Longevity📐 Weighted sum of Lancet Commission modifiable risk factors🏥 Health

Age (years)

Hearing loss (untreated)

Education level

Smoking

Depression

Social isolation

Traumatic brain injury

Physical inactivity

Hypertension (midlife)

Diabetes

Obesity (midlife)

Excess alcohol

Air pollution exposure

Uncorrected vision loss

Please enter valid values.

Formula & Reference

Variable	Symbol	Formula	Units
Cognitive Decline Risk Factor Calculator	—	Weighted sum of Lancet Commission modifiable risk factors	points

Step-by-Step Examples

Example 1

Low Burden

58 years, no hearing loss, secondary education, never smoked, no depression, socially active, no head injury, regularly active, normal BP, no diabetes.

Every listed factor absent
Total = 0 points

✓ 0 points — no listed factors present

Example 2

Moderate Burden

62 years, untreated hearing loss, former smoker, physically inactive, uncontrolled hypertension.

Untreated hearing loss → 7
Physical inactivity → 2
Uncontrolled hypertension → 2
Total = 11

✓ 11 points — hearing loss is the largest single factor

Example 3

High Burden

67 years, untreated hearing loss, less than secondary education, current smoker, history of depression, socially isolated, diabetic.

Hearing 7, education 5, smoking 5
Depression 4, isolation 4, diabetes 2
Total = 27

✓ 27 points — multiple addressable factors

Real-World Applications

👂

Hearing Loss

Untreated hearing loss is the single largest modifiable factor in the Lancet Commission analysis, and hearing aids are a straightforward intervention.

📊

Population Attributable Risk

The Commission estimates that addressing these factors could theoretically prevent or delay a substantial share of dementia cases.

⏱️

Life Course Timing

Different factors matter at different stages — education in early life, hypertension and hearing in midlife, isolation and inactivity later.

👁️

Newer Additions

Vision loss and air pollution were added in more recent Commission updates as evidence accumulated.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

⚠️

Reading this as a personal dementia prediction

These are population attributable risks. They describe how much dementia in a population might be prevented, not an individual's probability of developing it.

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Overlooking hearing and vision

Sensory impairments carry substantial weight and are among the most straightforwardly correctable factors, yet are frequently left untreated for years.

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Assuming genetics make lifestyle irrelevant

Even among people carrying higher-risk genetic variants, favourable modifiable profiles are associated with lower dementia incidence.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the modifiable dementia risk factors? ▾

The Lancet Commission identifies factors including hearing loss, lower education, smoking, depression, social isolation, head injury, inactivity, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, excess alcohol, air pollution, and vision loss.

How much dementia risk is modifiable? ▾

The Commission estimates these factors together account for roughly 45% of population dementia risk, meaning a substantial share might theoretically be prevented or delayed.

Why does hearing loss matter so much? ▾

It carries the largest single population attributable fraction. Proposed mechanisms include reduced cognitive stimulation, increased cognitive load, and social withdrawal.

Does treating hearing loss reduce dementia risk? ▾

Observational evidence is supportive and the ACHIEVE trial found benefit in higher-risk participants, though findings across the whole trial population were more mixed.

Can I prevent dementia entirely? ▾

No. Age and genetics remain the strongest risk factors and are not modifiable. Addressing these factors improves odds; it does not guarantee prevention.